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📊 Prediction Accuracy
6.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.70+3.44vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.04+4.39vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.24+6.30vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.52+4.39vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.76+5.89vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.16+3.72vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93-0.02vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45-2.71vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.59vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.73-2.25vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.40-2.09vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.44-3.01vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.28-3.50vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.00-3.84vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-8.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.44Bowdoin College2.700.2%1st Place
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6.39Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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9.3University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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8.39Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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10.89University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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9.72Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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6.98Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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6.41University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.75Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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8.91College of Charleston1.400.0%1st Place
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8.99Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.5Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.16Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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6.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 17.7% | 17.3% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Libby Redmond | 8.8% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 24.1% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Emily Bornarth | 13.0% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.4% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Kiera Oreardon | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.9% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% |
| Meredith Broadus | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 15.9% |
| Lucy Brock | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.