Race 15A

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Charlotte Costikyan 5.8% 7.3% 9.8% 7.5% 9.5% 8.2% 6.9% 8.0% 8.2% 7.9% 5.1% 6.9% 5.6% 3.3%
Lucy Brock 9.6% 8.9% 8.8% 10.0% 8.4% 8.1% 9.1% 8.3% 7.5% 7.2% 5.3% 4.2% 3.1% 1.5%
Emily Bornarth 14.3% 14.3% 11.8% 12.7% 9.5% 8.5% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 4.3% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3%
J.J. Smith 7.1% 9.3% 9.3% 7.9% 9.1% 9.5% 7.9% 7.2% 8.4% 7.2% 7.2% 5.2% 3.0% 1.7%
Elizabeth Kaplan 16.6% 17.4% 13.7% 12.1% 10.2% 8.0% 6.9% 5.4% 4.5% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1%
Payton Canavan 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 6.2% 6.9% 5.6% 8.5% 8.4% 6.9% 8.5% 9.8% 7.8% 8.8% 7.7%
Sofia Segalla 12.0% 9.5% 10.9% 9.4% 9.9% 8.8% 7.9% 6.8% 6.9% 6.6% 4.8% 3.6% 2.2% 0.7%
Elizabeth Gildea 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.6% 7.8% 5.5% 8.1% 8.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.5% 10.5%
Lucia Loosbrock 6.2% 4.8% 4.8% 6.4% 6.7% 7.0% 7.4% 10.5% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 9.0% 7.6% 4.8%
Meredith Broadus 3.1% 3.1% 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 6.4% 4.7% 5.8% 7.4% 6.7% 9.7% 11.8% 13.5% 16.9%
Emma Shakespeare 4.2% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.8% 6.6% 5.2% 8.5% 6.8% 9.0% 10.1% 9.0% 10.2% 11.0%
Pearl Lattanzi 3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 4.6% 4.2% 6.7% 6.2% 6.9% 7.3% 10.0% 9.3% 8.3% 11.9% 12.8%
Kiera Oreardon 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.7% 6.3% 7.2% 6.6% 7.8% 8.8% 7.3% 9.1% 10.4% 8.4% 6.5%
Audrey Commerford 2.4% 2.2% 4.1% 2.8% 3.2% 4.8% 6.8% 4.8% 5.2% 6.2% 7.7% 12.2% 15.4% 22.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.