Race 1B

admiral-alymer

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ryan Mullins 16.2% 16.4% 15.8% 14.6% 11.6% 10.3% 6.5% 4.5% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0%
T. Max Bulger 7.7% 8.1% 10.0% 9.6% 11.6% 11.3% 12.5% 12.5% 9.6% 5.5% 1.5% 0.1%
Timothy Scanlon 9.6% 8.3% 9.3% 10.3% 10.5% 10.9% 12.8% 12.4% 9.7% 4.7% 1.4% 0.1%
Marlena Fauer 19.9% 22.8% 15.4% 11.4% 11.9% 7.7% 5.2% 3.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Trevor Burd 11.7% 10.9% 12.1% 15.0% 10.4% 12.9% 9.9% 5.5% 7.4% 3.7% 0.5% 0.0%
Robert Lippincott 6.5% 6.9% 8.0% 8.4% 8.9% 10.4% 12.4% 14.1% 13.3% 8.0% 2.6% 0.5%
Tom Peabody 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 9.8% 11.8% 10.4% 12.1% 9.5% 10.6% 6.4% 2.5% 0.3%
Jessica Claflin 12.9% 10.5% 11.7% 10.8% 10.7% 12.0% 11.0% 9.5% 6.2% 3.4% 1.3% 0.0%
Zachary O'Brien 1.6% 1.4% 2.0% 3.2% 3.0% 4.3% 6.9% 9.4% 13.5% 28.9% 20.9% 4.9%
John Duncan 4.0% 4.2% 5.6% 5.6% 7.4% 7.3% 8.5% 13.9% 17.4% 17.9% 6.9% 1.3%
Alan Sutton 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.5% 2.8% 7.7% 20.5% 63.2%
Andrew Smith 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 3.7% 4.6% 13.0% 41.3% 29.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.