Race 2B

admiral-alymer

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Marlena Fauer 19.7% 19.0% 18.1% 14.5% 9.5% 8.1% 5.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Ryan Mullins 17.1% 17.5% 14.9% 14.3% 10.8% 10.0% 6.7% 5.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
T. Max Bulger 9.6% 7.0% 9.3% 8.3% 11.5% 10.1% 13.1% 12.6% 11.1% 5.9% 1.4% 0.1%
Jessica Claflin 9.2% 11.8% 12.2% 12.2% 11.2% 10.7% 11.3% 10.0% 7.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Robert Lippincott 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 9.8% 10.2% 9.7% 12.4% 12.2% 13.2% 9.1% 3.0% 0.2%
Tom Peabody 7.8% 9.0% 8.1% 9.4% 11.0% 12.0% 12.2% 11.6% 10.9% 6.2% 1.8% 0.0%
Timothy Scanlon 10.0% 9.2% 9.6% 9.9% 11.6% 11.5% 11.2% 10.6% 9.1% 5.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Trevor Burd 13.6% 11.9% 12.0% 11.8% 11.6% 12.1% 8.6% 10.2% 4.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.0%
John Duncan 3.0% 4.0% 5.6% 5.4% 7.6% 8.8% 10.0% 13.2% 17.4% 18.5% 5.9% 0.6%
Zachary O'Brien 2.2% 1.9% 2.9% 3.0% 2.6% 4.7% 5.6% 7.2% 14.2% 27.2% 22.0% 6.5%
Alan Sutton 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 3.0% 7.6% 21.9% 61.7%
Andrew Smith 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.3% 2.8% 4.8% 13.4% 40.1% 30.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.