Race 4B

admiral-alymer

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Trevor Burd 11.3% 11.0% 11.8% 13.1% 12.5% 10.8% 10.1% 10.3% 5.6% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Marlena Fauer 20.3% 19.7% 15.7% 14.1% 9.9% 9.7% 5.2% 3.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Mullins 19.3% 15.9% 14.6% 12.5% 14.5% 8.6% 7.0% 4.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Jessica Claflin 9.2% 12.1% 12.5% 12.0% 11.1% 12.4% 10.4% 8.5% 7.2% 3.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Zachary O'Brien 1.2% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 3.4% 4.4% 6.2% 8.2% 14.4% 26.0% 21.2% 7.4%
Timothy Scanlon 8.8% 8.9% 9.7% 9.5% 11.5% 11.1% 12.6% 12.1% 10.2% 4.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Tom Peabody 8.6% 8.6% 9.8% 10.1% 9.8% 11.9% 11.0% 12.2% 9.4% 6.5% 1.9% 0.2%
Robert Lippincott 7.8% 7.0% 8.6% 9.2% 8.4% 10.3% 10.8% 13.3% 13.3% 8.1% 2.7% 0.5%
Alan Sutton 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 3.6% 8.8% 24.0% 58.1%
T. Max Bulger 8.6% 9.8% 10.7% 8.6% 10.5% 10.3% 12.7% 11.3% 11.2% 5.7% 0.6% 0.0%
John Duncan 3.8% 2.9% 3.1% 7.5% 6.3% 7.5% 10.9% 11.7% 16.9% 19.3% 8.6% 1.5%
Andrew Smith 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 3.1% 4.6% 13.0% 38.8% 32.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.