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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+1.51vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.84vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.35+0.89vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.71+3.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.06+1.42vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+2.33vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.27-1.40vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-0.29+2.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.72+2.73vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.41-1.56vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-2.91vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.50-3.95vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.90-0.71vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.48vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-2.64+0.24vs Predicted
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17University of Washington-0.09-6.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.51Stanford University3.070.3%1st Place
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3.84University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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3.89University of Hawaii2.350.1%1st Place
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6.19California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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8.21University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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9.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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6.6University of Southern California1.270.1%1st Place
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11.66San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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9.44Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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9.05University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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13.29Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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12.52University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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16.24California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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10.98University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 34.0% | 24.4% | 18.2% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 15.9% | 17.8% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 14.6% | 18.3% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Diya Correa | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 1.9% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 17.9% | 6.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Powers | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 16.6% | 24.3% | 8.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 16.6% | 6.3% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 12.0% | 74.5% |
| Emily Smith | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.