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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+1.46vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+5.20vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+0.89vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.35-0.08vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.10vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.27+0.79vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+2.31vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University-0.29+3.34vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-0.09+2.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.72+2.74vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.71-3.67vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.41-3.61vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.50-4.84vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.44vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.90-2.73vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-2.64-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46Stanford University3.070.4%1st Place
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7.2University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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3.89University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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3.92University of Hawaii2.350.2%1st Place
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6.1California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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6.79University of Southern California1.270.0%1st Place
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9.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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11.34San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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11.09University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.74University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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9.39Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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9.16University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.56University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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13.27Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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16.26California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 36.3% | 24.6% | 17.4% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 13.9% | 17.7% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 13.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 16.7% | 16.9% | 15.6% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 5.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 2.0% |
| Emily Smith | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 1.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 16.4% | 17.4% | 5.9% |
| George Soliman | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Noah Barton | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 19.8% | 5.3% |
| Mitchell Powers | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 17.7% | 22.1% | 9.4% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 12.0% | 74.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.