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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+2.63vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+0.45vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.35+0.67vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.06+3.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.71+2.96vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+3.15vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.10+3.65vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.41+0.91vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-2.99vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.30vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.72+1.56vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.29-0.78vs Predicted
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13University of Washington-0.09-2.29vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.90-0.96vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.50-6.24vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.66-3.64vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-2.64-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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2.45Stanford University3.070.3%1st Place
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3.67University of Hawaii2.350.2%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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9.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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10.65University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.91Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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6.01California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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12.56University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.22San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.04Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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8.76University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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16.18California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 17.4% | 17.7% | 17.9% | 15.3% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 34.9% | 27.4% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 16.9% | 18.2% | 19.0% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 0.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Clay Myers | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 19.4% | 6.4% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 2.4% |
| Emily Smith | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Mitchell Powers | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 25.1% | 7.3% |
| Noah Barton | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 5.5% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 9.1% | 74.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.