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📊 Prediction Accuracy
82.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+1.50vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.85vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.35+0.87vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+5.19vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.16vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.27+0.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.06+0.39vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.41+1.32vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.71-0.42vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.09+1.02vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-1.44vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.17-1.76vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.50-3.79vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.72-1.05vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.90-1.75vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-2.64+0.27vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.66-4.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.5Stanford University3.070.3%1st Place
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3.85University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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3.87University of Hawaii2.350.2%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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6.16California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Southern California1.270.1%1st Place
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7.39University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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9.32Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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8.58University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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11.02University of Washington-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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10.24San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.95University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.25Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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16.27California State University Channel Islands-2.640.0%1st Place
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12.74University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 34.8% | 23.6% | 19.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 15.9% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 16.9% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 15.2% | 18.1% | 16.8% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Clay Myers | 5.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Smith | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 1.4% |
| Max Case | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 0.5% |
| Noah Barton | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 16.9% | 22.2% | 6.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 25.7% | 8.8% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 10.4% | 75.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 18.7% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.