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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.11+4.79vs Predicted
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2Columbia University1.71+2.39vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.11+0.56vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.77+0.22vs Predicted
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5Princeton University2.35-1.92vs Predicted
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6William and Mary0.21+1.87vs Predicted
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70.91-0.87vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.59-1.04vs Predicted
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9University of Pittsburgh0.14-0.83vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.59-3.04vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-0.40-1.70vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.12-3.41vs Predicted
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13American University-1.97-1.02vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Christopher Newport University1.110.1%1st Place
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4.39Columbia University1.710.1%1st Place
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3.56Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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4.22Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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3.08Princeton University2.350.3%1st Place
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7.87William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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6.130.910.1%1st Place
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6.96Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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6.96Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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9.3Syracuse University-0.400.0%1st Place
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8.59SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.98American University-1.970.0%1st Place
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10.95Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hodges | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leopold Brandl | 12.1% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 19.6% | 18.0% | 17.9% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 14.4% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 26.7% | 20.2% | 17.1% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Ward | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alec Wyers | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 20.4% | 16.6% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Blair | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 18.7% | 60.7% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 17.8% | 31.4% | 24.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.