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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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10.91+5.16vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.11+1.50vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+0.06vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.77+0.18vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.21+2.75vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.71-1.77vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-0.40+2.18vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.18-0.08vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.18-1.08vs Predicted
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10University of Pittsburgh0.14-1.97vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.26vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.12-3.47vs Predicted
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13American University-1.97-1.06vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.11-8.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.160.910.1%1st Place
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3.5Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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3.06Princeton University2.350.3%1st Place
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4.18Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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7.75William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
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4.23Columbia University1.710.1%1st Place
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9.18Syracuse University-0.400.0%1st Place
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7.92Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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7.92Virginia Tech0.180.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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10.74Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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8.53SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.94American University-1.970.0%1st Place
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5.79Christopher Newport University1.110.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Ward | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 19.0% | 19.9% | 17.4% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 27.0% | 19.8% | 16.0% | 16.2% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 13.5% | 15.4% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Leopold Brandl | 14.2% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alec Wyers | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 19.1% | 18.1% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 31.4% | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Blair | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 16.9% | 61.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hodges | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.