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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.78+3.90vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.02+2.34vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.08+1.22vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.81+0.85vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+3.26vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.47-0.36vs Predicted
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7William and Mary0.68-1.92vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University-0.26-0.32vs Predicted
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9American University-0.06-1.81vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47+0.44vs Predicted
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11Villanova University-0.08-4.03vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47-6.36vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-1.04-3.27vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.13-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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4.34Washington College1.020.2%1st Place
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4.22Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
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4.85Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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8.26SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.64Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.08William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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7.68Syracuse University-0.260.0%1st Place
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7.19American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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10.44Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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6.97Villanova University-0.080.1%1st Place
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5.64Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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9.73Columbia University-1.040.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hayes | 12.2% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 15.8% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 16.3% | 15.2% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 12.8% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 12.5% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Karl Wagerson | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 27.2% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Rotondo | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 17.3% | 22.3% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 19.4% | 54.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.