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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.02+3.35vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.78+2.91vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.08+1.15vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+4.44vs Predicted
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5Hampton University0.81-0.21vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.47-0.37vs Predicted
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7American University-0.06+0.05vs Predicted
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8William and Mary0.68-2.91vs Predicted
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9Villanova University-0.08-1.77vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-0.26-2.38vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.47-5.37vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-1.04-2.54vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-2.42vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.13-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Washington College1.020.2%1st Place
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4.91Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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4.15Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
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8.44SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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4.79Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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5.63Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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7.05American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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5.09William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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7.23Villanova University-0.080.1%1st Place
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7.62Syracuse University-0.260.1%1st Place
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5.63Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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9.46Columbia University-1.040.0%1st Place
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10.58Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Heim | 16.0% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 12.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 16.0% | 16.1% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 12.4% | 14.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Karl Wagerson | 6.5% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 10.5% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Rotondo | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 28.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 18.8% | 54.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.