← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Washington College1.02+3.33vs Predicted
-
2Christopher Newport University0.78+2.84vs Predicted
-
3American University-0.06+4.18vs Predicted
-
4Hampton University0.81+0.87vs Predicted
-
5William and Mary0.68+0.05vs Predicted
-
6Villanova University-0.08+1.11vs Predicted
-
7Princeton University1.08-2.91vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+0.34vs Predicted
-
9Virginia Tech0.47-3.23vs Predicted
-
10Syracuse University-0.26-2.36vs Predicted
-
11Virginia Tech0.47-5.23vs Predicted
-
12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-1.60vs Predicted
-
13Columbia University-1.04-3.31vs Predicted
-
14University of Pittsburgh-2.13-2.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.33Washington College1.020.2%1st Place
-
4.84Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
-
7.18American University-0.060.0%1st Place
-
4.87Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
-
5.05William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
-
7.11Villanova University-0.080.1%1st Place
-
4.09Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
-
8.34SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
-
5.77Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
-
7.64Syracuse University-0.260.1%1st Place
-
5.77Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
-
10.4Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
-
9.69Columbia University-1.040.0%1st Place
-
11.68University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Heim | 15.2% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 11.8% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Wagerson | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 13.5% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 12.6% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 17.7% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 26.4% | 21.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Rotondo | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 18.6% | 21.5% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 9.8% | 17.7% | 56.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.