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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University0.81+3.86vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.47+3.70vs Predicted
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3Washington College1.02+1.30vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.08+0.10vs Predicted
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5William and Mary0.68+0.12vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+2.37vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.78-2.18vs Predicted
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8Villanova University-0.08-0.88vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-0.26-1.24vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47-4.30vs Predicted
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11American University-0.06-3.93vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-1.04-2.52vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47-2.40vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.13-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.86Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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5.7Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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4.3Washington College1.020.1%1st Place
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4.1Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
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5.12William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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8.37SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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4.82Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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7.12Villanova University-0.080.1%1st Place
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7.76Syracuse University-0.260.0%1st Place
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5.7Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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7.07American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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9.48Columbia University-1.040.0%1st Place
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10.6Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Palamara | 13.0% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 13.6% | 16.6% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 17.3% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 14.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Karl Wagerson | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Ava Rotondo | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 17.0% | 19.2% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 28.3% | 24.9% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 54.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.