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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1William and Mary0.68+3.95vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.81+2.63vs Predicted
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3Washington College1.02+1.11vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.08-0.05vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.78-0.37vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47+4.14vs Predicted
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7Villanova University-0.08-0.26vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-0.01vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.47-3.53vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.47-4.53vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.99-1.91vs Predicted
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12American University-1.59-1.70vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.26-5.48vs Predicted
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14University of Pittsburgh-2.13-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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4.63Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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4.11Washington College1.020.2%1st Place
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3.95Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
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4.63Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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10.14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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6.74Villanova University-0.080.1%1st Place
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7.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.47Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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5.47Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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9.09Columbia University-0.990.0%1st Place
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10.3American University-1.590.0%1st Place
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7.52Syracuse University-0.260.0%1st Place
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11.47University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Whisner | 12.2% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 12.0% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 15.9% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 17.3% | 16.6% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 14.3% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 24.8% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasmine Chen | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 17.5% | 15.2% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Lydia LoPiccolo | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 18.0% | 21.7% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 17.5% | 48.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.