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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.02+3.13vs Predicted
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2Princeton University1.08+2.01vs Predicted
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3William and Mary0.68+1.97vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech0.47+1.46vs Predicted
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5Villanova University-0.08+1.73vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.78-1.32vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+0.97vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.81-3.45vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-0.26-1.62vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47+0.14vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.99-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh-2.13-0.56vs Predicted
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13American University-1.59-2.45vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-8.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Washington College1.020.2%1st Place
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4.01Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
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4.97William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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5.46Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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6.73Villanova University-0.080.1%1st Place
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4.68Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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7.97SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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4.55Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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7.38Syracuse University-0.260.0%1st Place
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10.14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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8.99Columbia University-0.990.0%1st Place
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11.44University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
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10.55American University-1.590.0%1st Place
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5.46Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Heim | 16.9% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 18.0% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 10.5% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 12.1% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 13.6% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 18.9% | 22.2% | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| Jasmine Chen | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 20.6% | 47.2% | 0.0% |
| Lydia LoPiccolo | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 24.3% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.