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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+7.04vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.47+3.44vs Predicted
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3Villanova University-0.08+3.91vs Predicted
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4William and Mary0.68+0.88vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.78-0.34vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.81-1.44vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.08-3.02vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University-0.26-0.71vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.47-3.56vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.47+0.13vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.02-6.87vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-1.04-2.93vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.13-1.59vs Predicted
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14American University-1.59-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.44Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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6.91Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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4.88William and Mary0.680.1%1st Place
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4.66Christopher Newport University0.780.1%1st Place
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4.56Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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3.98Princeton University1.080.2%1st Place
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7.29Syracuse University-0.260.0%1st Place
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5.44Virginia Tech0.470.1%1st Place
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10.13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.470.0%1st Place
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4.13Washington College1.020.2%1st Place
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9.07Columbia University-1.040.0%1st Place
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11.41University of Pittsburgh-2.130.0%1st Place
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10.49American University-1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Magill | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.5% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 12.7% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 14.3% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 13.0% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 18.0% | 16.6% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 9.5% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 18.9% | 21.8% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Heim | 16.9% | 15.5% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Rotondo | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 19.3% | 47.3% | 0.0% |
| Lydia LoPiccolo | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 17.1% | 26.3% | 21.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.