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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.18+4.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+4.13vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.55+1.18vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.44+3.14vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.20+0.22vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.91-0.04vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.54-0.38vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.49+1.59vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.80-5.33vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80-3.82vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.31+0.48vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.51-2.41vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.78-0.85vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.67-2.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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6.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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4.18Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.14Fordham University1.440.0%1st Place
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5.22Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.96Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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6.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.540.1%1st Place
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9.59SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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3.67U. S. Naval Academy2.800.2%1st Place
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6.18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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11.48University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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9.59Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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12.15Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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11.97Syracuse University-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Camille McGriff | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Clara Guarascio | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 12.9% | 4.8% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 21.3% | 18.3% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 12.3% | 20.2% | 23.7% | 20.6% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 16.4% | 9.5% | 4.6% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 24.7% | 37.2% |
| Maren Behnke | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 24.3% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.