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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.11+4.28vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+3.02vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+3.18vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.55+0.31vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+1.51vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.910.00vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.85-1.17vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.44-0.87vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.80-5.21vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.31+1.47vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.51-1.33vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.78+0.29vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-0.67-1.03vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.49-4.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28University of Pennsylvania2.110.1%1st Place
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5.02Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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6.18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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4.31Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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6.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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6.0Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.850.1%1st Place
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7.13Fordham University1.440.1%1st Place
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3.79U. S. Naval Academy2.800.2%1st Place
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11.47University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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9.67Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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11.97Syracuse University-0.670.0%1st Place
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9.55SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Majernik | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 11.9% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 14.8% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Payton Canavan | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 19.1% | 18.2% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 19.4% | 24.2% | 20.3% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 18.3% | 11.2% | 4.2% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 23.2% | 39.4% |
| Maren Behnke | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 26.2% | 32.4% |
| Clara Guarascio | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 17.2% | 18.3% | 10.3% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.