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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.93vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.58vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.47vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.73+1.82vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.69+1.04vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.40-1.80vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.28-0.26vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.04vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia-0.55+2.21vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.57-3.70vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.01-0.82vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.61-0.66vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.09vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-3.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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3.47Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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5.82George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.04Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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4.2U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.74Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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6.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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11.21University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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6.3Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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10.18SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.34Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.09Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.14Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 10.4% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 14.0% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.6% | 19.3% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.9% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 23.7% | 26.1% | 11.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 4.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 19.3% | 26.8% | 14.3% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 65.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 17.9% | 19.6% | 14.3% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.