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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.51vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.77vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+1.70vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.28+2.97vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.40-0.75vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.690.00vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.73-1.43vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.57-1.83vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.96vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.01+0.19vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-0.55+0.28vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.93+1.17vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-2.81vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.61-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.51Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.77University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.25U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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6.0Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.57George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.17Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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10.19SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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13.17Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.19Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.2Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 22.6% | 19.8% | 15.4% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.4% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 13.3% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 13.0% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 20.4% | 18.9% | 13.7% | 4.7% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 20.0% | 28.8% | 11.5% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 67.3% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 19.4% | 20.4% | 13.3% | 5.0% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 21.4% | 26.5% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.