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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.50vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.97vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.28+3.94vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.96vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.73+0.89vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.690.00vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College-0.01+2.88vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.99vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57-2.73vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-5.25vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61+0.36vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.93+1.19vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.55-1.88vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-3.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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3.97U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.94Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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4.96University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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5.89George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.0Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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9.88SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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6.27Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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11.36Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.19Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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11.12University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.17Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 22.5% | 21.4% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.3% | 16.9% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 9.7% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 19.1% | 15.3% | 14.4% | 4.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.7% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 20.6% | 27.9% | 13.4% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 15.7% | 67.1% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 22.0% | 24.7% | 11.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 17.5% | 21.9% | 14.3% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.