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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.93vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+1.44vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.17vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+3.05vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.73+0.96vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-1.12vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.28-0.27vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.86-2.54vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57-2.70vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.01+0.18vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61+0.38vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-0.55-0.78vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.08vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.93University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.44Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.17U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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7.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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5.96George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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4.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.73Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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5.46Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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6.3Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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10.18SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.38Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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13.08Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.21Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 11.5% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.6% | 19.0% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.2% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.5% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 9.9% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 18.0% | 15.6% | 4.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 19.4% | 30.5% | 12.2% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 21.3% | 23.0% | 13.4% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 65.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 19.0% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.