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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.97vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+2.01vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.73+2.85vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+0.79vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69-1.39vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.86-0.38vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.18vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28-1.02vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57-2.70vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.01+0.20vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-1.93+2.20vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.61-0.67vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.55-1.90vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.01U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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5.85George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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4.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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3.61Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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5.62Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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6.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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6.98Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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6.3Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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10.2SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
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13.2Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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11.33Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.1University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.22Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 11.0% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.9% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 10.1% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 19.5% | 19.9% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 9.5% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 17.7% | 18.4% | 15.6% | 4.3% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 67.3% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 19.9% | 27.2% | 12.9% |
| Elizabeth Harrington | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 20.1% | 25.7% | 11.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 22.9% | 13.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.