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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+2.89vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.73+3.72vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+1.79vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.02vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.57+1.49vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.40-1.68vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.10vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28-0.89vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.86-3.37vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia0.32-0.35vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61+0.57vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.93+1.26vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-2.56vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.01-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.89Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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5.72George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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4.79St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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5.02University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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6.49Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.32U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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7.11Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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5.63Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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11.57Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.26Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.44Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.22SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 18.9% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 13.3% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.4% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.7% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Riley Kloc | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 18.3% | 16.4% | 11.5% | 2.9% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 15.6% | 34.7% | 15.6% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 14.1% | 71.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 22.8% | 17.9% | 6.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 22.4% | 17.3% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.