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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.28+6.06vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+4.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+1.76vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.73+1.93vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.54-1.03vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.40-1.69vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.09vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.97vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.86-3.37vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.09+0.56vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61+0.59vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia0.32-2.35vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.19vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.01-3.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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6.16Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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5.93George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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3.97Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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4.31U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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5.03University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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5.63Georgetown University1.860.1%1st Place
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10.56Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.59Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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9.65University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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13.19Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.24SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 13.3% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 17.6% | 17.4% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 15.6% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.0% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 21.0% | 20.4% | 5.9% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 18.3% | 35.1% | 14.7% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 17.9% | 16.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 14.1% | 70.1% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 23.2% | 15.2% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.