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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+3.74vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+1.46vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.69+2.99vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+3.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.40-0.72vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.730.00vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.28-0.15vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.06-3.00vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57-2.61vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.61+1.53vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.32-1.35vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-1.45vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.19vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.01-3.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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3.46Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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5.99Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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4.28U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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6.0George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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6.85Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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5.0University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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6.39Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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11.53Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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9.65University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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10.55Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.19Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.23SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Bashaw | 13.0% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 22.8% | 18.7% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 13.8% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.9% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 17.3% | 34.3% | 14.6% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 17.7% | 17.5% | 11.8% | 2.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 16.2% | 20.2% | 19.3% | 7.0% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 14.3% | 70.0% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 23.1% | 15.9% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.