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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+6.06vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.68vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.18vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.09vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.69+1.12vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.28+1.20vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.69-3.59vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.57-1.70vs Predicted
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9Washington College-0.61+2.51vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.73-4.04vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.32-1.34vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-1.52vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.18vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.01-3.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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4.68St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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4.18U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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5.09University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.2Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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3.41Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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6.3Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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11.51Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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5.96George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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10.48Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.18Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.18SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 5.7% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 13.3% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.7% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.3% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 23.8% | 19.0% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 20.5% | 33.1% | 14.8% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 18.5% | 11.1% | 3.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 19.6% | 19.4% | 6.2% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 13.1% | 70.7% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 16.5% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.