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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+2.70vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.88+3.12vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.69+2.76vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.01vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+2.07vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-1.28vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.00+0.38vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28-1.15vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.73-3.24vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.09+0.44vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia0.32-1.52vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.61-0.52vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.15vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.01-3.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.7Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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5.12University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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5.76Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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4.01U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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4.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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7.38Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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6.85Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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5.76George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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10.44Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.48University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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11.48Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.15Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.07SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 19.8% | 20.1% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.9% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.6% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 13.5% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 18.5% | 21.7% | 6.3% |
| Emma Sullivan | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 17.0% | 11.2% | 2.7% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 18.5% | 29.8% | 16.3% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 13.9% | 69.6% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 20.7% | 16.1% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.