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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.54+2.66vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.00+5.54vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.88+2.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.01vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-0.31vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+1.08vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.28-0.31vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.32+1.37vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.69-3.17vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.73-4.30vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61+0.49vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-1.60vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University-1.93+0.15vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.01-3.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66Cornell University2.540.2%1st Place
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7.54Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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5.29University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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4.01U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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4.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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7.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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6.69Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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9.37University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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5.83Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.7George Washington University1.730.1%1st Place
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11.49Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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10.4Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.15Syracuse University-1.930.0%1st Place
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10.09SUNY Maritime College-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 21.0% | 19.3% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.7% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 11.5% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Emma Sullivan | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 12.0% | 2.6% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Chiara Perotti Correa | 8.9% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 34.5% | 14.6% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 18.9% | 20.7% | 17.6% | 6.4% |
| Erin Splaine | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 13.4% | 70.3% |
| Morgan Essex | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 20.9% | 16.0% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.