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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+4.11vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+6.96vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.23+5.22vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.09+4.91vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.80+1.17vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+1.41vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.09+1.81vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.63-1.46vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.54-2.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.70vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.36-3.34vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.19-3.65vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.07-0.79vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.35-2.72vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.33-3.45vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.49-8.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.11Stanford University3.070.2%1st Place
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8.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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8.22Tulane University2.230.1%1st Place
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8.91University of Pennsylvania2.090.0%1st Place
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6.17College of Charleston2.800.1%1st Place
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7.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.81Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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6.54George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.93Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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7.66Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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12.21University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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11.28University of Vermont1.350.0%1st Place
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11.55North Carolina State University1.330.0%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 15.1% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| Asher Zittrer | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Gavula | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Brandon Geller | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 10.6% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 8.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 28.1% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 17.8% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| Gray Benson | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.