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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.99+4.17vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.49+4.87vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+5.79vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.36+3.57vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.09+3.43vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+1.19vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.09+1.57vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.54-1.33vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.28vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.23-1.97vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.63-4.55vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.33-0.96vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.00+1.41vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.69vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.23-6.97vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.35-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.17Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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6.87U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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8.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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7.57Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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7.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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8.57Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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6.67Georgetown University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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8.03College of Charleston2.230.1%1st Place
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6.45George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.04North Carolina State University1.330.0%1st Place
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14.41University of Michigan0.000.0%1st Place
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7.31SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.03Tulane University2.230.1%1st Place
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11.17University of Vermont1.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 13.9% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Gray Benson | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| Diego Escobar | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 5.8% |
| Axel Stordahl | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 10.7% |
| Samuel Ephraim | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 61.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Asher Zittrer | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.