Race 2A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Connor McHugh 13.1% 12.2% 12.9% 12.2% 10.8% 9.8% 8.2% 6.7% 5.1% 3.2% 3.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Tristan McDonald 14.4% 14.2% 12.7% 12.2% 10.2% 9.2% 8.1% 5.9% 5.0% 4.0% 1.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Edward Herman 11.1% 11.6% 11.2% 10.1% 8.5% 9.8% 9.1% 8.1% 6.3% 5.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Joey Richardson 5.4% 5.8% 6.5% 8.5% 7.8% 9.0% 7.9% 8.9% 7.8% 8.0% 7.5% 5.7% 5.4% 3.7% 1.8% 0.5%
David Vinogradov 8.7% 8.6% 8.7% 7.7% 8.6% 9.7% 9.2% 9.4% 8.5% 6.7% 5.0% 4.2% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Daniel van Heeckeren 4.2% 4.5% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.4% 7.2% 8.2% 8.7% 9.3% 8.6% 7.3% 7.4% 3.0%
James Brock 18.1% 13.9% 13.2% 13.2% 10.9% 8.8% 6.6% 5.2% 3.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Pierson Falk 4.0% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.4% 6.2% 6.6% 7.0% 8.0% 7.8% 9.4% 7.0% 8.2% 8.0% 5.0% 2.3%
Keller Morrison 4.2% 5.0% 4.6% 4.8% 6.2% 5.7% 6.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.9% 8.9% 8.6% 8.2% 6.3% 4.8% 2.1%
Meara Conley 3.6% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.9% 6.9% 7.0% 7.3% 8.5% 9.6% 9.5% 8.2% 7.0% 4.3%
Jancy Grayson 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.5% 5.1% 7.3% 7.3% 7.8% 7.6% 9.0% 9.0% 9.2% 7.0% 5.1% 2.4%
John Mason 3.5% 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 5.8% 5.1% 6.0% 6.6% 7.1% 7.0% 8.3% 9.9% 9.2% 9.2% 6.0% 4.0%
Emaline Ouellette 2.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.7% 6.6% 7.1% 7.2% 8.4% 10.7% 11.8% 11.5% 9.0%
Sean Morrison 1.1% 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 5.2% 4.9% 7.0% 7.8% 10.2% 17.4% 27.0%
Emilia Perriera 1.6% 1.1% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 3.4% 3.0% 4.6% 5.3% 7.8% 7.0% 9.6% 13.6% 15.4% 18.4%
Tyler Winowiecki 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 3.5% 5.3% 4.7% 6.7% 7.8% 12.2% 17.5% 26.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.