Race 4 - owen-mosbacher-knapp | College Sailing Data

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

75.0%

Within 2 Positions

1.1

Avg Position Diff

4

Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

1

Jack Derry & Daniel Neville

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1.44

+1.45

vs Predicted
2

Ryan Hamilton & Brooke Willke

University of Vermont

1.11

+0.79

vs Predicted
3

Finn Rauch & Eileen Mehrkens

SUNY Maritime College

1.02

-0.10

vs Predicted
4

Michael Burns & Maeve Jackson

U. S. Merchant Marine Academy

2.04

-2.14

vs Predicted

🎯 Predicted Standings

2.45

Jack Derry & Daniel Neville

U. S. Coast Guard Academy

1.44

0.2%

1st Place
2.79

Ryan Hamilton & Brooke Willke

University of Vermont

1.11

0.2%

1st Place
2.9

Finn Rauch & Eileen Mehrkens

SUNY Maritime College

1.02

0.2%

1st Place
1.86

Michael Burns & Maeve Jackson

U. S. Merchant Marine Academy

2.04

0.5%

1st Place

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper	1	2	3	4
Jack Derry	23.7%	28.0%	27.8%	20.5%
Ryan Hamilton	15.5%	22.8%	28.7%	33.0%
Finn Rauch	15.1%	18.8%	27.6%	38.5%
Michael Burns	45.7%	30.4%	15.9%	8.0%

Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.