Race 3A

mt-hope-bay-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Tristan McDonald 14.5% 14.3% 12.8% 11.8% 9.4% 9.2% 7.6% 6.9% 5.5% 3.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Edward Herman 12.9% 10.7% 11.3% 10.8% 10.7% 9.6% 7.9% 7.5% 6.3% 5.1% 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
John Mason 3.4% 3.8% 3.5% 4.9% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5% 7.3% 8.1% 8.9% 8.8% 10.1% 8.7% 7.1% 3.8%
James Brock 16.7% 14.6% 13.8% 11.3% 12.5% 9.1% 6.7% 5.3% 3.6% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Meara Conley 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.2% 6.3% 7.0% 7.4% 7.7% 8.4% 10.0% 8.5% 9.1% 6.3% 3.9%
David Vinogradov 7.0% 8.6% 9.6% 10.0% 8.6% 9.8% 8.6% 8.3% 7.8% 6.2% 5.3% 4.2% 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
Jancy Grayson 4.0% 4.6% 5.3% 5.5% 4.8% 5.9% 8.0% 7.0% 8.4% 8.5% 8.2% 7.2% 7.9% 6.4% 5.5% 2.6%
Connor McHugh 12.8% 13.8% 12.4% 10.8% 10.5% 8.6% 7.1% 7.6% 6.1% 4.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Keller Morrison 5.1% 4.3% 3.8% 5.1% 5.2% 6.3% 7.3% 6.6% 8.1% 8.2% 9.0% 9.7% 7.9% 6.6% 4.1% 2.8%
Pierson Falk 4.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 6.0% 5.8% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 8.0% 8.2% 9.2% 8.2% 7.0% 5.1% 2.0%
Joey Richardson 5.7% 6.9% 7.0% 7.4% 8.4% 7.6% 8.6% 7.8% 7.9% 7.5% 7.8% 6.2% 5.0% 3.5% 2.1% 0.6%
Daniel van Heeckeren 3.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.7% 4.5% 6.3% 6.7% 6.6% 7.0% 8.8% 8.7% 7.3% 8.6% 8.4% 6.2% 3.8%
Emaline Ouellette 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 2.9% 3.4% 4.0% 3.7% 5.3% 5.9% 7.2% 8.3% 9.2% 11.2% 12.5% 12.1% 8.2%
Emilia Perriera 1.5% 1.7% 2.4% 1.8% 3.1% 2.9% 3.5% 4.2% 3.8% 5.8% 6.4% 8.2% 9.2% 11.7% 15.8% 18.1%
Sean Morrison 1.2% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 4.8% 5.7% 6.7% 8.1% 10.5% 17.3% 27.8%
Tyler Winowiecki 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 3.4% 3.8% 4.5% 4.8% 7.0% 8.6% 12.6% 17.3% 26.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.