Race 5A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

12.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
James Brock 15.7% 16.2% 14.4% 11.5% 11.2% 9.3% 6.6% 4.9% 4.1% 2.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor McHugh 13.9% 12.4% 12.2% 11.4% 10.5% 9.2% 8.6% 7.2% 5.4% 3.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Daniel van Heeckeren 3.8% 3.5% 4.3% 4.2% 5.2% 4.8% 5.0% 8.3% 7.9% 8.3% 8.8% 8.8% 8.6% 7.9% 6.8% 3.8%
Jancy Grayson 3.6% 4.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.9% 5.7% 7.1% 7.8% 8.0% 7.4% 7.2% 9.4% 7.7% 6.8% 5.9% 2.4%
Joey Richardson 5.7% 6.7% 7.1% 7.1% 7.6% 7.8% 8.7% 7.3% 9.3% 9.0% 7.1% 6.0% 5.1% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4%
John Mason 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 5.1% 3.8% 5.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 8.1% 8.3% 8.7% 9.5% 7.5% 7.5% 3.6%
Meara Conley 3.9% 3.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.7% 4.3% 6.8% 6.2% 8.7% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 9.3% 7.6% 6.5% 4.3%
Keller Morrison 3.8% 3.7% 4.1% 4.5% 6.1% 6.7% 6.3% 7.8% 7.6% 7.2% 9.3% 9.3% 7.4% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5%
Emaline Ouellette 1.6% 2.5% 2.9% 3.6% 3.1% 5.1% 3.9% 4.4% 6.1% 6.5% 8.6% 8.8% 10.5% 11.8% 11.3% 9.2%
Edward Herman 11.8% 11.6% 11.4% 11.0% 10.7% 9.2% 8.0% 8.6% 5.9% 4.7% 3.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Tristan McDonald 13.9% 13.6% 13.5% 11.9% 11.1% 8.5% 7.8% 6.3% 4.4% 3.2% 2.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Pierson Falk 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 5.0% 4.8% 5.7% 7.3% 7.0% 7.6% 8.6% 8.9% 9.0% 7.8% 7.4% 5.5% 3.0%
David Vinogradov 9.6% 8.8% 8.2% 8.3% 8.6% 10.9% 8.3% 7.3% 6.9% 7.0% 6.2% 4.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2%
Emilia Perriera 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 4.3% 4.0% 4.9% 6.8% 7.7% 10.3% 12.5% 15.4% 17.6%
Sean Morrison 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.6% 5.3% 5.1% 6.7% 9.0% 12.2% 16.0% 26.3%
Tyler Winowiecki 1.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% 4.0% 5.0% 5.1% 7.0% 7.8% 11.8% 17.1% 26.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.