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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.25+7.04vs Predicted
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2Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+8.10vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.18+5.47vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.49vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.40+2.48vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.41+1.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+3.06vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.60vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.34+2.50vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.48+1.14vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.63-4.23vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-4.65vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.23-0.67vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.73-3.95vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.92-9.31vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.33-8.26vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University0.38-0.05vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-0.56vs Predicted
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19Drexel University0.20-1.58vs Predicted
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20U. S. Military Academy-0.74-1.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04Bowdoin College3.250.1%1st Place
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10.1Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.47Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.48Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.55Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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10.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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8.6SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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11.5Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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11.14Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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6.77University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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12.33George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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10.05Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.69University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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7.74U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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16.95Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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17.44Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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17.42Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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18.83U. S. Military Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Hatch | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 6.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Amy Hawkins | 13.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 17.9% | 26.0% | 20.3% | 12.8% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 14.0% | 24.2% | 27.7% | 16.2% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 6.1% | 14.3% | 22.9% | 28.3% | 16.0% |
| James Peaco | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 21.3% | 54.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.