← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+7.29vs Predicted
-
2University of Rhode Island2.78+7.76vs Predicted
-
3Boston College2.58+6.76vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University3.18+1.80vs Predicted
-
5Yale University2.73+1.71vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.97vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University2.22+2.51vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University2.20+2.19vs Predicted
-
9Brown University2.73-1.06vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.82+0.68vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College2.38-2.07vs Predicted
-
12University of Miami2.32-0.53vs Predicted
-
13Tulane University2.28-3.16vs Predicted
-
14Bowdoin College2.03-1.89vs Predicted
-
15Stanford University3.15-8.56vs Predicted
-
16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-4.82vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-3.88vs Predicted
-
18College of Charleston2.49-8.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.29U. S. Naval Academy2.606.3%1st Place
-
9.76University of Rhode Island2.784.9%1st Place
-
9.76Boston College2.584.2%1st Place
-
5.8Harvard University3.1812.7%1st Place
-
6.71Yale University2.7310.1%1st Place
-
9.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.573.5%1st Place
-
9.51Tufts University2.225.3%1st Place
-
10.19Georgetown University2.204.7%1st Place
-
7.94Brown University2.737.0%1st Place
-
10.68George Washington University1.823.2%1st Place
-
8.93Dartmouth College2.385.1%1st Place
-
11.47University of Miami2.323.0%1st Place
-
9.84Tulane University2.284.5%1st Place
-
12.11Bowdoin College2.033.0%1st Place
-
6.44Stanford University3.1510.9%1st Place
-
11.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.313.4%1st Place
-
13.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.272.5%1st Place
-
9.28College of Charleston2.495.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| Peter Busch | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 15.2% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% |
| James Kopack | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 23.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.