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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+7.34vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+4.56vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+7.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+3.22vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.73+5.07vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.41+1.56vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.33+1.05vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.40-0.69vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.92-3.48vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College3.25-1.89vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-1.10vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.63-5.17vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.34-1.12vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.22vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.48-3.90vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.23-4.02vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21+0.33vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University0.38-0.90vs Predicted
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19U. S. Military Academy-0.74-0.24vs Predicted
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20Drexel University0.20-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.34Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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10.17Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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7.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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10.07Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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7.31Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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8.11Bowdoin College3.250.1%1st Place
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9.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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11.88Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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8.78SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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11.1Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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11.98George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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17.33Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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17.1Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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18.76U. S. Military Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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17.43Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amy Hawkins | 13.3% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D.J. Hatch | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 15.6% | 24.4% | 26.7% | 14.7% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 16.1% | 25.8% | 23.5% | 13.0% |
| James Peaco | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 19.2% | 54.8% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.9% | 14.8% | 22.3% | 27.2% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.