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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.93+3.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+7.78vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.12+3.55vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.45+4.92vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.42+0.83vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.01+1.06vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.80+0.74vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.49+0.90vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.66-0.74vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin2.65-1.57vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-2.74vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.61-3.30vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.51-0.89vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.16-4.10vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.47-9.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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9.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.170.0%1st Place
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6.55Harvard University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.92Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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5.83Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.06Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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7.74University of Rhode Island2.800.1%1st Place
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8.9Roger Williams University2.490.0%1st Place
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8.26University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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8.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.7Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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12.11University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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9.9Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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5.46Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Harvey | 20.3% | 18.3% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 11.5% |
| Eli Burnes | 9.2% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 6.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Aidan naughton | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| Grant Gridley | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.5% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 5.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 39.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 12.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.5% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.