Race 10A

thompson-throphy

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Connor Nelson 12.6% 13.6% 12.0% 10.1% 9.3% 8.9% 8.1% 7.1% 5.4% 4.9% 2.9% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4%
Shawn Harvey 21.8% 19.3% 14.5% 11.7% 8.7% 8.1% 5.8% 3.7% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Atlee Kohl 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% 6.3% 7.7% 6.9% 6.9% 9.6% 7.5% 9.5% 7.1% 7.4% 7.4% 3.9% 1.1%
CJ Mckenna 3.9% 4.8% 5.6% 5.4% 8.0% 5.9% 7.6% 7.5% 7.0% 6.9% 8.4% 10.3% 9.1% 7.9% 1.7%
Matthew Kickhafer 3.9% 3.4% 4.0% 5.1% 4.9% 4.6% 6.3% 5.3% 6.2% 6.1% 10.0% 11.9% 12.6% 11.5% 4.2%
Robert Bragg 11.4% 13.4% 10.5% 12.2% 10.5% 10.6% 8.3% 7.7% 4.4% 4.0% 3.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Sam Bruce 6.8% 5.4% 5.8% 6.3% 7.0% 7.0% 10.1% 8.4% 9.0% 8.1% 7.0% 6.3% 7.7% 4.1% 1.0%
Aidan naughton 6.2% 6.1% 8.5% 7.5% 6.6% 7.7% 8.5% 7.8% 9.1% 8.8% 6.7% 7.8% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8%
Christian Spencer 4.8% 5.4% 6.3% 6.6% 8.2% 7.9% 7.6% 9.2% 7.5% 8.4% 9.5% 7.0% 5.8% 4.9% 0.9%
Zachariah Schemel 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.8% 4.5% 3.4% 5.3% 5.5% 6.9% 8.2% 12.1% 26.8% 15.3%
Clayton Snyder 3.1% 2.9% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2% 5.4% 6.4% 7.2% 7.6% 9.8% 8.3% 11.1% 12.5% 6.4%
Jack DeNatale 6.8% 7.0% 9.9% 8.2% 8.8% 9.5% 6.4% 7.9% 8.1% 9.4% 6.9% 5.5% 4.1% 1.0% 0.5%
Samuel Merson 5.4% 5.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.9% 6.0% 6.7% 7.2% 9.2% 8.7% 9.7% 9.8% 6.5% 6.0% 1.3%
Grant Gridley 5.2% 4.7% 4.2% 7.2% 5.8% 7.8% 6.2% 6.9% 9.2% 8.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.5% 6.5% 1.3%
Matthew Cabot 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.3% 3.0% 6.9% 11.4% 65.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.