Race 11A

thompson-throphy

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Robert Bragg 12.2% 13.2% 10.7% 11.5% 9.2% 8.6% 8.3% 6.7% 5.2% 4.6% 3.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Aidan naughton 5.6% 7.4% 7.3% 8.3% 7.5% 7.4% 8.0% 6.5% 7.3% 8.7% 6.4% 6.3% 5.1% 6.5% 1.7%
Grant Gridley 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 6.3% 5.9% 6.3% 6.5% 7.7% 6.7% 7.0% 7.5% 10.2% 8.8% 7.2% 5.4%
Shawn Harvey 19.4% 17.7% 12.9% 12.8% 9.6% 8.7% 5.8% 3.8% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
CJ Mckenna 4.5% 4.8% 5.5% 5.0% 5.2% 6.6% 5.4% 6.7% 6.4% 7.1% 8.1% 10.3% 8.4% 8.0% 8.0%
Connor Nelson 12.3% 9.6% 10.9% 11.1% 10.8% 8.7% 9.4% 7.4% 6.0% 5.7% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Matthew Kickhafer 4.3% 3.3% 3.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 5.9% 5.2% 7.7% 8.6% 7.2% 8.5% 9.4% 12.3% 11.2%
Jack DeNatale 7.6% 8.0% 8.8% 7.3% 7.8% 9.2% 9.1% 7.5% 6.9% 6.8% 7.3% 4.0% 5.4% 2.9% 1.4%
Samuel Merson 4.5% 5.0% 5.7% 6.5% 6.0% 7.0% 8.1% 8.9% 7.6% 7.0% 7.4% 8.3% 8.7% 5.8% 3.5%
Cordelia Burn 4.4% 3.5% 5.3% 5.3% 6.5% 5.1% 5.9% 7.3% 8.4% 8.0% 8.0% 7.8% 9.3% 8.9% 6.3%
Christian Spencer 4.6% 6.5% 6.7% 4.9% 7.3% 8.5% 6.5% 6.5% 8.0% 5.6% 8.5% 7.6% 5.5% 8.2% 5.1%
Zachariah Schemel 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 6.2% 5.2% 7.3% 9.9% 15.2% 36.0%
Atlee Kohl 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 5.6% 6.8% 5.8% 6.0% 8.4% 6.6% 8.9% 10.4% 7.6% 7.3% 6.1% 4.6%
Sam Bruce 5.5% 5.9% 6.5% 6.1% 7.1% 6.4% 7.0% 7.4% 8.8% 7.7% 8.5% 6.9% 7.2% 4.9% 4.1%
Clayton Snyder 3.1% 3.9% 4.4% 3.3% 4.5% 5.8% 4.6% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 8.1% 9.1% 11.4% 11.4% 12.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.