Race 11A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
David Vinogradov 10.8% 10.1% 10.4% 10.5% 9.5% 9.2% 8.6% 8.5% 7.2% 5.9% 4.3% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Jancy Grayson 4.7% 5.7% 6.0% 5.7% 7.8% 7.4% 8.8% 6.9% 7.6% 7.6% 9.2% 8.1% 7.6% 4.7% 2.2%
Tristan McDonald 18.3% 17.4% 13.5% 11.8% 10.6% 8.7% 7.4% 5.0% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Joey Richardson 6.6% 8.0% 8.2% 9.0% 9.1% 9.0% 10.2% 9.4% 8.7% 6.9% 5.9% 4.0% 3.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Meara Conley 4.0% 3.5% 5.3% 4.3% 6.4% 6.9% 7.1% 8.2% 8.6% 10.5% 8.6% 9.2% 7.2% 6.8% 3.4%
Emaline Ouellette 2.9% 3.1% 4.2% 3.1% 4.0% 5.1% 4.9% 6.1% 6.5% 7.7% 9.3% 11.6% 12.0% 11.8% 7.8%
Keller Morrison 5.2% 5.1% 5.7% 5.9% 7.3% 7.5% 7.7% 7.2% 9.3% 8.6% 9.8% 7.5% 7.1% 3.7% 2.5%
Pierson Falk 5.1% 5.0% 4.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 6.4% 8.2% 9.0% 10.3% 9.0% 7.8% 6.3% 5.5% 2.3%
John Mason 4.0% 4.6% 4.8% 5.6% 5.9% 6.9% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 7.6% 9.2% 9.4% 8.8% 7.3% 3.7%
Tyler Winowiecki 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.4% 2.3% 2.4% 3.4% 4.0% 5.1% 5.7% 7.0% 8.6% 10.8% 16.6% 28.1%
Edward Herman 13.6% 12.8% 11.2% 12.4% 11.2% 10.0% 8.8% 7.1% 4.3% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Connor McHugh 16.4% 15.2% 15.2% 13.5% 9.4% 9.0% 6.9% 5.9% 4.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Emilia Perriera 1.8% 2.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 3.5% 4.0% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5% 8.4% 10.2% 12.6% 14.6% 18.1%
Jean-Luc Depardieu 3.4% 4.7% 4.0% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% 7.8% 7.5% 9.2% 8.2% 9.1% 10.3% 8.5% 5.6%
Sean Morrison 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 3.7% 3.4% 5.4% 5.5% 6.3% 9.0% 11.3% 17.8% 25.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.