Race 15A

thompson-throphy

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jack DeNatale 6.7% 10.3% 9.3% 8.7% 7.9% 10.1% 9.0% 7.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.2% 4.3% 4.5% 1.7%
Clayton Snyder 3.2% 4.2% 5.2% 5.4% 4.3% 5.2% 6.0% 5.4% 7.2% 8.9% 9.9% 11.3% 11.3% 12.5%
Robert Bragg 12.7% 14.3% 11.7% 9.8% 10.6% 9.3% 7.7% 7.3% 5.6% 5.1% 2.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Samuel Merson 4.7% 5.8% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 7.8% 9.0% 8.0% 9.3% 8.4% 4.5%
Matthew Kickhafer 2.8% 2.7% 4.6% 4.6% 5.1% 6.2% 5.2% 7.0% 5.6% 7.8% 9.9% 11.1% 13.0% 14.4%
Connor Nelson 12.2% 9.4% 13.2% 11.5% 10.0% 8.9% 8.4% 6.5% 6.0% 5.3% 4.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3%
CJ Mckenna 5.6% 5.0% 6.1% 5.9% 6.5% 6.6% 7.3% 6.7% 7.8% 8.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.7% 6.1%
Shawn Harvey 21.2% 19.1% 12.2% 11.0% 10.4% 6.5% 6.6% 5.5% 3.9% 1.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Grant Gridley 5.9% 3.6% 4.1% 6.7% 5.2% 6.3% 7.6% 7.9% 8.5% 9.6% 9.3% 9.7% 9.8% 5.8%
Aidan naughton 6.0% 5.4% 7.1% 8.9% 8.3% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.5% 8.0% 9.1% 6.3% 5.4% 3.4%
Christian Spencer 6.2% 5.0% 4.4% 7.2% 8.1% 7.3% 7.6% 7.1% 9.9% 8.6% 7.5% 8.4% 7.5% 5.2%
Atlee Kohl 4.6% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 8.0% 7.2% 8.1% 9.2% 9.6% 7.3% 7.3% 6.7% 8.1% 5.7%
Zachariah Schemel 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 4.5% 5.6% 4.4% 6.5% 10.5% 14.7% 37.0%
Sam Bruce 6.2% 6.7% 7.6% 5.6% 7.1% 7.1% 8.1% 9.0% 8.2% 8.9% 8.6% 8.2% 5.6% 3.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.