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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.33+6.73vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+6.84vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+4.34vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.18+4.28vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.58vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.92-0.35vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.34vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.25-0.12vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.73+1.05vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.23+2.05vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.40-3.44vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.63-5.22vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.34-1.08vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.48-2.88vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.41-7.55vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-6.22vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.20+0.32vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.21-0.58vs Predicted
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19Syracuse University0.38-1.92vs Predicted
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20U. S. Military Academy-0.74-1.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.73U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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8.84SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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8.28Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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5.65University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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10.34Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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7.88Bowdoin College3.250.1%1st Place
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10.05Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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12.05George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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7.56Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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6.78University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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11.92Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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11.12Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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7.45Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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17.32Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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17.42Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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17.08Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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18.84U. S. Military Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Ravelo | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amy Hawkins | 11.8% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| D.J. Hatch | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 9.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Billy Hines | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Meleney | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 14.8% | 25.1% | 23.3% | 16.8% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 14.1% | 24.7% | 27.1% | 16.2% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 17.9% | 23.7% | 25.2% | 11.9% |
| James Peaco | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 21.7% | 54.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.