Race 2A

central-series-four

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Miles Williams 13.3% 14.3% 11.4% 12.5% 10.6% 9.4% 6.7% 7.0% 5.8% 4.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Elliott 13.5% 13.6% 12.9% 9.8% 10.1% 8.7% 9.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Bowdler 13.3% 9.9% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 9.6% 10.4% 7.7% 5.4% 4.8% 3.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Nils Tullberg 7.6% 10.6% 10.1% 8.2% 9.2% 8.8% 10.6% 9.7% 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Nathan Selian 6.2% 6.1% 6.7% 7.8% 8.4% 9.3% 8.0% 7.4% 9.8% 9.1% 7.8% 6.5% 3.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Meredith Broadus 4.0% 4.0% 3.6% 7.5% 7.4% 6.9% 8.2% 7.1% 7.8% 8.8% 10.0% 8.0% 8.5% 4.4% 3.3% 0.5%
Adrian Winkelman 13.6% 10.7% 11.4% 10.6% 8.9% 9.4% 9.3% 7.0% 7.3% 5.8% 2.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Julia Shannon-Grillo 4.8% 5.6% 7.0% 6.7% 6.0% 7.7% 7.3% 9.5% 6.7% 11.5% 9.7% 7.2% 5.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Severin Gramm 11.4% 11.2% 11.3% 8.5% 11.6% 9.1% 8.0% 8.1% 6.7% 5.0% 3.5% 3.7% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
James Jagielski 2.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 2.5% 4.9% 4.3% 5.9% 7.5% 8.3% 10.3% 13.4% 12.4% 9.9% 6.2% 1.5%
Penelope Weekes 2.0% 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% 3.1% 4.5% 4.2% 5.1% 9.9% 13.3% 14.4% 19.3% 12.0%
Gabriel Tamayo 1.4% 2.0% 2.6% 2.4% 3.2% 2.7% 3.3% 4.6% 6.3% 7.1% 8.2% 9.4% 13.4% 13.8% 13.3% 6.3%
Paul Kuechler 2.4% 3.3% 3.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.1% 4.4% 7.4% 8.1% 8.9% 12.5% 9.6% 8.8% 8.5% 5.4% 1.5%
Andy Leshaw 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 3.4% 2.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.9% 6.3% 6.9% 8.8% 11.3% 13.9% 13.8% 7.8% 4.5%
Felix Nusbaum 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 2.4% 1.7% 2.5% 3.7% 4.8% 7.0% 10.9% 15.3% 24.6% 20.8%
Dominic Ioime 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.7% 3.7% 5.0% 10.1% 17.6% 52.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.