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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.09+5.27vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+2.82vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.50+5.44vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.46+4.61vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12+1.41vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.04+0.55vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.57+1.18vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-0.12vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11+0.87vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.61-1.80vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.23-5.00vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.98-1.43vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.50-4.28vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.74-2.99vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.49-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27Roger Williams University3.090.1%1st Place
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4.82Harvard University3.540.2%1st Place
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8.44Dartmouth College2.500.0%1st Place
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8.61Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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6.41Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.55Brown University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.18Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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7.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.87Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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8.2Tufts University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.0University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.57Salve Regina University1.980.0%1st Place
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8.72Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.01Northeastern University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.48Bowdoin College2.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Cartwright | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 15.2% | 15.7% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| James Paul | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| Walter Henry | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| Jack Egan | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Jack Murphy | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.0% |
| Samuel Merson | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Alex Bowdler | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 18.6% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% |
| Ted Bjerregaard | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 24.8% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.