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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania3.63+5.79vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+5.38vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.33+5.09vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.40+3.62vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.25+3.25vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.70vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.18+1.81vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.76vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.41-1.51vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.92-4.24vs Predicted
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11Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-0.70vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.73-1.53vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.21+4.55vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.34-2.24vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-5.08vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.48-4.81vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.20+0.37vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University0.38-0.88vs Predicted
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19George Washington University2.84-9.19vs Predicted
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20U. S. Military Academy-0.74-1.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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8.09U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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7.62Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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8.25Bowdoin College3.250.1%1st Place
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6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.81Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.76SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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7.49Tufts University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.76University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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10.3Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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10.47Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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17.55Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.76Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.1%1st Place
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11.19Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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17.37Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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17.12Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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9.81George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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18.87U. S. Military Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halsey Richartz | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| D.J. Hatch | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.5% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Meleney | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amy Hawkins | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 15.0% | 23.8% | 26.4% | 18.4% |
| Billy Hines | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 16.3% | 25.7% | 24.5% | 15.7% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 18.2% | 25.8% | 23.2% | 12.6% |
| William Ricketson | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Peaco | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 23.4% | 53.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.