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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.71+4.82vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.38+4.86vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.36+4.00vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.51+2.58vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.13+2.99vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+2.66vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.65-0.86vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.45-1.14vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.85-0.14vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.36-2.79vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.28-3.56vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.69-2.27vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.74-3.49vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.07-5.92vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.21-1.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.86Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.0Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.58Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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7.99Harvard University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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6.14Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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6.86Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.86Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
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7.21University of Rhode Island2.360.1%1st Place
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7.44Yale University2.280.1%1st Place
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9.73Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.51Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.08Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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13.26Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fasolo | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Mathieu Dale | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Eric Hansen | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 3.7% |
| Christopher Lukens | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 3.6% |
| Parker Colantuono | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Davies | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| William George | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 7.7% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 7.8% |
| Micky Munns | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 2.6% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 12.0% | 60.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.